Nikkei Asia reports that Apple has been less affected by potential export disruptions from India; however, shipments dependent on Middle Eastern trade hubs may experience significant declines in the coming weeks. Here are the details.

Apple is Better Prepared for Disruptions

In the past year, India has emerged as an alternative to China in Apple’s efforts to diversify its production footprint.

This timing coincides with the Indian government's efforts to position the country as a global manufacturing hub. This has led to an explosion in exports with increased local assembly and overseas shipments in the smartphone market.

According to official data from India cited by Nikkei Asia, the country “exported mobile phones worth approximately $11 billion in the first half of the fiscal year starting in April 2025, which is an increase of about 55% compared to a year earlier.”

However, the war in Iran is expected to disrupt this momentum. Here is Nikkei Asia:

“[…] analysts warn that smartphone exports may decline in the coming weeks, especially in channels dependent on regional trade hubs like the United Arab Emirates. Some added that shipments from small and medium-sized traders are more affected compared to the large-scale, organized exports of global brands.

The report states that Apple is one of the major brands less exposed to these disruptions.

Still, the chaos in the region could “slow smartphone exports by 22% to 25% in the coming weeks if the crisis deepens,” the report says.

The report also highlights a positive point: while these tensions disrupt shipments, they do not yet seem to have affected demand.

Here is Nikkei Asia again:

“So far, the impact has been more on logistics, while demand remains relatively resilient,” says Ahmed Shehab, a Dubai-based researcher from Counterpoint. He added that companies have been temporarily moving away from hubs like Dubai and Doha, using more direct routes.

Regardless, as disruptions to major hubs in the Middle East continue, export flows are expected to remain volatile in the coming weeks.

It is still uncertain whether further escalation will affect demand.

Follow this link to read the full report from Nikkei Asia.

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